AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken prediction
Allsvenskan · · Strawberry Arena, Solna
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AIK Stockholm a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and BK Hacken 65%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 1.10, BK Hacken 2.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AIK Stockholm: position 9 with 38 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-8-9), 43 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: L D W D L.
BK Hacken: position 4 with 49 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-10-4), 48 goals scored and 30 conceded. Recent form: W D W W W.
On average AIK Stockholm take 1.41 points per game, BK Hacken 1.81.
Absences and team news
AIK Stockholm are without A. Ali, M. Thychosen, Á. Csongvai, L. Bergquist.
BK Hacken are without F. Helander, A. Linde.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 17% for AIK Stockholm, 19% for the draw and 64% for BK Hacken. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 15%, 20% and 65%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 1.10, BK Hacken 2.40, 3.50 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Granit Maqedonci (over 3.5 at 52%).
Other factors
AIK Stockholm has a new coach, Jose Riveiro, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a BK Hacken win (65%, fair odds 1.53); double chance X2 rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram