Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF prediction
Allsvenskan · · Orjans Vall, Halmstad
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Halmstad a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Djurgardens IF 69%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Halmstad 0.78, Djurgardens IF 2.22.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Halmstad: position 16 with 17 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-5-18), 18 goals scored and 51 conceded. Recent form: L L W L L.
Djurgardens IF: position 3 with 52 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 16-4-7), 55 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: W D D W W.
On average Halmstad take 0.63 points per game, Djurgardens IF 1.93.
Absences and team news
Halmstad are without R. Kaib, G. Wallentin.
Djurgardens IF are without P. Åslund, M. Larsson.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 12% for Halmstad, 19% for the draw and 68% for Djurgardens IF. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 11%, 20% and 69%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Halmstad 0.78, Djurgardens IF 2.22, 3.00 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 0-2.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Victor Wolf (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Halmstad: 6.1 °C, no rain, wind 9 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Halmstad has a new coach, S. Baxter, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Djurgardens IF win (69%, fair odds 1.44); double chance X2 rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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