Kalmar FF vs Sirius prediction
Allsvenskan · · Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Kalmar FF a 26% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sirius 47%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.18, Sirius 1.65.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Kalmar FF: position 13 with 23 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-5-16), 23 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.
Sirius: position 2 with 58 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 18-4-5), 58 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W L L D W.
On average Kalmar FF take 0.85 points per game, Sirius 2.15.
Absences and team news
Kalmar FF report no significant absences.
Sirius are without Mohamed Soumah, R. Ure, N. Jönsson.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 27% for Kalmar FF, 26% for the draw and 47% for Sirius. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 26%, 27% and 47%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Kalmar FF 1.18, Sirius 1.65, 2.83 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Mohammed Al-Hakim (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sirius win (47%, fair odds 2.12); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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