Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long prediction
Chinese Super League · · Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Beijing Guoan a 82% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 5%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.82, Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.65.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Beijing Guoan: position 3 with 47 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-10-5), 57 goals scored and 36 conceded. Recent form: W W W D D.
Chongqing Tongliang Long: position 9 with 36 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-12-9), 31 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W D D L D.
On average Beijing Guoan take 1.62 points per game, Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.24.
Absences and team news
Beijing Guoan are without Bai Yang, Dawhan, Fábio Abreu, Yue Tze Nam.
Chongqing Tongliang Long are without Zhang Yingkai, G. Cîmpanu, L. Dimata, Xiang Yuwang.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 81% for Beijing Guoan, 13% for the draw and 6% for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 82%, 13% and 5%.
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 2.82, Chongqing Tongliang Long 0.65, 3.47 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 45%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.9 (over 9.5 at 52%). Expected yellow cards: 3.3 (over 3.5 at 41%).
Kick-off forecast in Beijing: 6.5 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch heavy.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Beijing Guoan win (82%, fair odds 1.23); double chance 1X rises to 95%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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