SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban prediction
Chinese Super League · · Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 86% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Shenyang Urban 4%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.21, Shenyang Urban 0.61.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
SHANGHAI SIPG: position 5 with 42 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-8-8), 50 goals scored and 36 conceded. Recent form: W W W D W.
Shenyang Urban: position 13 with 29 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-5-16), 41 goals scored and 52 conceded. Recent form: L W D L L.
On average SHANGHAI SIPG take 1.45 points per game, Shenyang Urban 1.00.
Absences and team news
SHANGHAI SIPG are without Liu Zhurun.
Shenyang Urban are without Yuan Mincheng, A. Kouamé, Felipe Ferreira, Zhang Yan.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 85% for SHANGHAI SIPG, 9% for the draw and 6% for Shenyang Urban. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 86%, 10% and 4%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.21, Shenyang Urban 0.61, 3.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 73%, both teams to score at 44%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 4 (over 3.5 at 55%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a SHANGHAI SIPG win (86%, fair odds 1.16); double chance 1X rises to 96%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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