Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City prediction
Chinese Super League · · Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Jinan
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Shandong Luneng a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Chengdu Better City 39%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 1.61, Chengdu Better City 1.67.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Shandong Luneng: position 4 with 44 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 15-5-9), 57 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: W W D D W.
Chengdu Better City: position 1 with 52 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 15-7-7), 51 goals scored and 35 conceded. Recent form: L L L D W.
On average Shandong Luneng take 1.52 points per game, Chengdu Better City 1.79.
Absences and team news
Shandong Luneng are without Huang Zhengyu, Gao Zhunyi.
Chengdu Better City are without Wei Shihao.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Shandong Luneng, 27% for the draw and 37% for Chengdu Better City. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 36%, 25% and 39%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 1.61, Chengdu Better City 1.67, 3.28 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 66%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8 (over 3.5 at 53%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Chengdu Better City win (39%, fair odds 2.58); double chance X2 rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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