Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns prediction
Chinese Super League · · Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Yuxi
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Yunnan Yukun a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Wuhan Three Towns 17%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.61, Wuhan Three Towns 1.34.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Yunnan Yukun: position 6 with 40 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-7-11), 57 goals scored and 60 conceded. Recent form: D D L W L.
Wuhan Three Towns: position 15 with 22 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-12-12), 44 goals scored and 55 conceded. Recent form: L L D L D.
On average Yunnan Yukun take 1.38 points per game, Wuhan Three Towns 0.76.
Absences and team news
Yunnan Yukun report no significant absences.
Wuhan Three Towns report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 64% for Yunnan Yukun, 17% for the draw and 19% for Wuhan Three Towns. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 64%, 19% and 17%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.61, Wuhan Three Towns 1.34, 3.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 69%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9 (over 3.5 at 54%).
Kick-off forecast in Yuxi: 17.9 °C, rain 2.1 mm, wind 6 km/h, pitch artificial.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Yunnan Yukun win (64%, fair odds 1.56); double chance 1X rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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