Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye prediction
Chinese Super League · · Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Hangzhou
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Hangzhou Greentown a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Henan Jianye 13%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 2.76, Henan Jianye 1.19.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Hangzhou Greentown: position 10 with 34 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-6-12), 51 goals scored and 54 conceded. Recent form: W L L W L.
Henan Jianye: position 14 with 28 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-10-11), 38 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: L L D D D.
On average Hangzhou Greentown take 1.17 points per game, Henan Jianye 0.97.
Absences and team news
Hangzhou Greentown are without Zhang Aihui.
Henan Jianye are without Lucas Maia, Gustavo, Huang Ruifeng, Wang Guoming.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 68% for Hangzhou Greentown, 16% for the draw and 15% for Henan Jianye. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 70%, 17% and 13%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 2.76, Henan Jianye 1.19, 3.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 66%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 4 (over 3.5 at 56%).
Kick-off forecast in Hangzhou: 17.6 °C, rain 1.5 mm, wind 3 km/h, pitch heavy.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Hangzhou Greentown win (70%, fair odds 1.43); double chance 1X rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram