Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island prediction
Chinese Super League · · Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Shanghai Shenhua a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Qingdao Youth Island 18%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 2.29, Qingdao Youth Island 1.20.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Shanghai Shenhua: position 8 with 37 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-5-10), 63 goals scored and 50 conceded. Recent form: L W W W L.
Qingdao Youth Island: position 7 with 39 points from 29 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-15-6), 32 goals scored and 38 conceded. Recent form: D L L D D.
On average Shanghai Shenhua take 1.28 points per game, Qingdao Youth Island 1.34.
Absences and team news
Shanghai Shenhua are without Rafael Ratão, Zhu Chenjie, Wu Xi, Chan Shinichi.
Qingdao Youth Island are without S. Memišević.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 63% for Shanghai Shenhua, 19% for the draw and 18% for Qingdao Youth Island. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 61%, 21% and 18%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 2.29, Qingdao Youth Island 1.20, 3.49 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 64%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6 (over 3.5 at 48%).
Kick-off forecast in Shanghai: 18.1 °C, rain 1.3 mm, wind 6 km/h, pitch wet.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Shanghai Shenhua win (61%, fair odds 1.64); double chance 1X rises to 82%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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