Rennes vs Lille prediction
Ligue 1 · · Roazhon Park, Rennes
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Rennes a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lille 31%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Rennes 1.48, Lille 1.24.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Rennes: position 5 with 16 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-3), 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L W L W L.
Lille: position 3 with 18 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-3-1), 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W D D W L.
On average Rennes take 1.78 points per game, Lille 2.00.
Absences and team news
Rennes are without Mousa Tamari, A. Rouault, E. Lepaul, P. Frankowski.
Lille are without R. Perraud, D. Bakwa, Tiago Santos.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Rennes, 28% for the draw and 29% for Lille. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 41%, 28% and 31%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Rennes 1.48, Lille 1.24, 2.72 in total. Over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.2 (over 9.5 at 44%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Clement Turpin (over 3.5 at 47%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Rennes win (41%, fair odds 2.41); double chance 1X rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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