Le Mans vs Monaco prediction
Ligue 1 · · MMArena, Le Mans
Live · 74'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Le Mans a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Monaco 60%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Le Mans 0.86, Monaco 1.85.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Le Mans: position 17 with 7 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-4-4), 11 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L D L L W.
Monaco: position 7 with 15 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-2), 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L D L D W.
On average Le Mans take 0.78 points per game, Monaco 1.67.
Absences and team news
Le Mans report no significant absences.
Monaco report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 17% for Le Mans, 24% for the draw and 59% for Monaco. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 16%, 24% and 60%.
Expected goals: Le Mans 0.86, Monaco 1.85, 2.72 in total. Over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 8.8 (over 9.5 at 39%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Bastein Dechepy (over 3.5 at 50%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Monaco win (60%, fair odds 1.67); double chance X2 rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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