Lens vs Marseille prediction
Ligue 1 · · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lens a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Marseille 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Lens 1.58, Marseille 1.38.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lens: position 9 with 13 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-4), 16 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L W W W L.
Marseille: position 6 with 15 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-0-4), 20 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W W L.
On average Lens take 1.44 points per game, Marseille 1.67.
Absences and team news
Lens report no significant absences.
Marseille report no significant absences.
Team news, Lens: Ivanović is out with concussion protocol; Édouard and Sima are also missing, leaving Lens very thin up front.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Lens, 27% for the draw and 31% for Marseille. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 41%, 27% and 32%.
Expected goals: Lens 1.58, Marseille 1.38, 2.96 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.1 (over 9.5 at 42%). Expected yellow cards: 3.2, with referee Willy Delajod (over 3.5 at 40%).
Kick-off forecast in Lens: 4.8 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 4 for Lens, 3 for Marseille.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lens win (41%, fair odds 2.44); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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