Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon prediction
Ligue 1 · · Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Stade Brestois 29 a 35% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lyon 38%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.38, Lyon 1.44.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Stade Brestois 29: position 11 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L D W L.
Lyon: position 4 with 17 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-2), 15 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W L W L W.
On average Stade Brestois 29 take 1.33 points per game, Lyon 1.89.
Absences and team news
Stade Brestois 29 report no significant absences.
Lyon report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 35% for Stade Brestois 29, 28% for the draw and 37% for Lyon. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 35%, 28% and 38%.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.38, Lyon 1.44, 2.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 46%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Jeremy Stinat (over 3.5 at 43%).
Kick-off forecast in Brest: 13.3 °C, no rain, wind 12 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 6 for Stade Brestois 29, 3 for Lyon.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lyon win (38%, fair odds 2.67); double chance X2 rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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