Le Havre vs Lorient prediction
Ligue 1 · · Stade Océane, Le Havre
Live · 68'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Le Havre a 29% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Lorient 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Le Havre 1.13, Lorient 1.39.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Le Havre: position 18 with 2 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-7), 9 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.
Lorient: position 12 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: L D W W L.
On average Le Havre take 0.22 points per game, Lorient 1.33.
Absences and team news
Le Havre report no significant absences.
Lorient report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for Le Havre, 29% for the draw and 41% for Lorient. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 29%, 29% and 42%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Le Havre 1.13, Lorient 1.39, 2.52 in total. Over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.1 (over 9.5 at 42%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Aurelien Petit (over 3.5 at 43%).
Kick-off forecast in Le Havre: 10.5 °C, no rain, wind 11 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lorient win (42%, fair odds 2.41); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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