Nacional vs Academico Viseu prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio da Madeira, Funchal
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Nacional a 30% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Academico Viseu 41%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Nacional 1.13, Academico Viseu 1.35.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Nacional: position 16 with 7 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-7), 10 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L W L L L.
Academico Viseu: position 6 with 20 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-2), 15 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Nacional take 0.70 points per game, Academico Viseu 2.00.
Absences and team news
Nacional report no significant absences.
Academico Viseu report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 31% for Nacional, 30% for the draw and 39% for Academico Viseu. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 30%, 30% and 41%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.13, Academico Viseu 1.35, 2.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Academico Viseu win (41%, fair odds 2.46); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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