Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Santa Clara a 39% chance of winning, the draw 31% and GIL Vicente 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.21, GIL Vicente 1.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Santa Clara: position 4 with 21 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-1), 15 goals scored and 6 conceded. Recent form: W L W D W.
GIL Vicente: position 7 with 15 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-3), 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: D L W W D.
On average Santa Clara take 2.10 points per game, GIL Vicente 1.50.
Absences and team news
Santa Clara are without Guilherme Romão, Lucas França, Pedro Ferreira, Gonçalo Paciência.
GIL Vicente are without M. Elimbi Gilbert, Héctor Hernández.
Team news, GIL Vicente: Gil Vicente comes off a tight run of matches, and the coach stresses the need for recovery, above all mental and physical.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 39% for Santa Clara, 31% for the draw and 30% for GIL Vicente. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 39%, 31% and 30%.
Expected goals: Santa Clara 1.21, GIL Vicente 1.04, 2.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 8.7 (over 9.5 at 38%). Expected yellow cards: 4.4, with referee Diogo Rosa (over 3.5 at 63%).
Kick-off forecast in Ponta Delgada: 17.4 °C, rain 0.4 mm, wind 39 km/h, pitch wet.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Santa Clara win (39%, fair odds 2.59); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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