Estoril vs Maritimo prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Estoril a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Maritimo 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Estoril 1.51, Maritimo 1.15.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Estoril: position 18 with 2 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-2-8), 5 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.
Maritimo: position 14 with 8 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-6), 9 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L L L D L.
On average Estoril take 0.20 points per game, Maritimo 0.80.
Absences and team news
Estoril report no significant absences.
Maritimo report no significant absences.
Team news, Estoril: Striker Begraoui, sidelined by a muscle injury, remains doubtful: he is in the final stage of recovery but is not certain to play.
Team news, Maritimo: Marítimo could not fly to the mainland because of bad weather in Madeira: the match has been postponed and a new date is yet to be agreed.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for Estoril, 27% for the draw and 27% for Maritimo. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 44%, 28% and 28%.
Expected goals: Estoril 1.51, Maritimo 1.15, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 8.7 (over 9.5 at 38%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Jose Bessa (over 3.5 at 59%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Estoril win (44%, fair odds 2.25); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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