Estrela vs Benfica prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Estrela a 5% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Benfica 82%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Estrela 0.68, Benfica 2.96.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Estrela: position 12 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-4), 15 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L L L L D.
Benfica: position 2 with 25 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-1-1), 27 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W W W L W.
On average Estrela take 1.00 points per game, Benfica 2.50.
Absences and team news
Estrela report no significant absences.
Benfica report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Estrela, 12% for the draw and 81% for Benfica. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 5%, 12% and 82%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Estrela 0.68, Benfica 2.96, 3.64 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 48%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9 (over 9.5 at 41%). Expected yellow cards: 4.4, with referee Antonio Nobre (over 3.5 at 64%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Benfica win (82%, fair odds 1.21); double chance X2 rises to 95%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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