Rio Ave vs SC Braga prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio dos Arcos, Vila do Conde
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Rio Ave a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and SC Braga 65%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.84, SC Braga 2.07.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Rio Ave: position 17 with 7 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-7), 9 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L W L D.
SC Braga: position 8 with 14 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-4), 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W L L L D.
On average Rio Ave take 0.70 points per game, SC Braga 1.40.
Absences and team news
Rio Ave report no significant absences.
SC Braga report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 15% for Rio Ave, 21% for the draw and 65% for SC Braga. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 13%, 22% and 65%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Rio Ave 0.84, SC Braga 2.07, 2.91 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 0-2.
Expected corners: 8.6 (over 9.5 at 36%). Expected yellow cards: 4, with referee Claudio Pereira (over 3.5 at 57%).
Other factors
Rio Ave has a new coach, Vasco Seabra, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a SC Braga win (65%, fair odds 1.54); double chance X2 rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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