Vitoria vs FC Porto prediction
Primeira Liga · · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Vitoria a 12% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Porto 66%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Vitoria 0.76, FC Porto 2.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Vitoria: position 13 with 9 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-5), 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: D W L D L.
FC Porto: position 1 with 30 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-0-0), 25 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Vitoria take 0.90 points per game, FC Porto 3.00.
Absences and team news
Vitoria are without O. Zych, Thiago Balieiro, L. Doucet, A. Ndoye.
FC Porto are without André Silva, William.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 14% for Vitoria, 22% for the draw and 64% for FC Porto. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 12%, 22% and 66%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Vitoria 0.76, FC Porto 2.04, 2.80 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 0-2.
Expected corners: 8.8 (over 9.5 at 38%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva (over 3.5 at 60%).
Kick-off forecast in Guimarães: 18.7 °C, rain 0.2 mm, wind 12 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 2 for Vitoria, 4 for FC Porto.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Porto win (66%, fair odds 1.51); double chance X2 rises to 88%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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