Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata prediction
Super League Grecia · · Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripolis
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Asteras Tripolis a 50% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Kalamata 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.57, Kalamata 0.99.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Asteras Tripolis: position 12 with 6 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-3-5), 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: L D L W D.
Kalamata: position 8 with 11 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-4), 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: D L W W L.
On average Asteras Tripolis take 0.67 points per game, Kalamata 1.22.
Absences and team news
Asteras Tripolis are without F. Brorsson, J. Bartolo, D. Laskaris, K. Ketu.
Kalamata are without G. Piñeiro, J. Bolívar.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 51% for Asteras Tripolis, 27% for the draw and 22% for Kalamata. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 50%, 28% and 23%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.57, Kalamata 0.99, 2.56 in total. Over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Anastasios Papapetrou (over 3.5 at 55%).
Kick-off forecast in Tripoli: 9.4 °C, no rain, wind 9 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Asteras Tripolis win (50%, fair odds 2.01); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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