Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos prediction
Super League Grecia · · Kaftanzoglio Stadio, Thessaloniki
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Iraklis 1908 a 7% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Panathinaikos 77%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 0.59, Panathinaikos 2.37.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Iraklis 1908: position 9 with 10 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-3), 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: D L L W D.
Panathinaikos: position 1 with 24 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-0-1), 20 goals scored and 4 conceded. Recent form: W W W L W.
On average Iraklis 1908 take 1.11 points per game, Panathinaikos 2.67.
Absences and team news
Iraklis 1908 are without R. Nizet, N. Radoja.
Panathinaikos are without G. Kiriakopoulos, L. García, K. Kangwa.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 8% for Iraklis 1908, 16% for the draw and 76% for Panathinaikos. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 7%, 17% and 77%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Iraklis 1908 0.59, Panathinaikos 2.37, 2.96 in total. Over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 0-2.
Expected corners: 9.9 (over 9.5 at 52%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Angelos Evangelou (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Thessaloníki: 12.7 °C, no rain, wind 9 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Panathinaikos win (77%, fair odds 1.31); double chance X2 rises to 93%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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