OFI vs Atromitos prediction
Super League Grecia · · Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium, Heraklion
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives OFI a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Atromitos 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: OFI 1.35, Atromitos 1.19.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
OFI: position 6 with 16 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-3), 14 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W W L L D.
Atromitos: position 13 with 5 points from 8 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-5), 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L L L D.
On average OFI take 1.78 points per game, Atromitos 0.63.
Absences and team news
OFI are without N. Christogeorgos, K. Kostoulas.
Atromitos are without J. Uronen, T. Tsingaras, S. Pnevmonidis, S. Tsiloulis.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 37% for OFI, 29% for the draw and 33% for Atromitos. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 39%, 29% and 32%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: OFI 1.35, Atromitos 1.19, 2.54 in total. Over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 51%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Fotios Polychronis (over 3.5 at 53%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a OFI win (39%, fair odds 2.56); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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