Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction
J1 League · · Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Avispa Fukuoka a 42% chance of winning, the draw 30% and V-varen Nagasaki 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka 1.34, V-varen Nagasaki 1.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Avispa Fukuoka: position 20 with 8 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-10), 14 goals scored and 25 conceded. Recent form: D L L L L.
V-varen Nagasaki: position 16 with 13 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-4-7), 17 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.
On average Avispa Fukuoka take 0.54 points per game, V-varen Nagasaki 0.92.
Absences and team news
Avispa Fukuoka are without M. Shigemi, Y. Tsujioka, Y. Maejima, Y. Obata.
V-varen Nagasaki are without R. Shindo, Thiago Santana.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Avispa Fukuoka, 29% for the draw and 27% for V-varen Nagasaki. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 42%, 30% and 28%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka 1.34, V-varen Nagasaki 1.04, 2.38 in total. Over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Avispa Fukuoka win (42%, fair odds 2.37); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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