Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga prediction
J1 League · · Toyota Stadium, Toyota
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Nagoya Grampus a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kyoto Sanga 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.80, Kyoto Sanga 1.12.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Nagoya Grampus: position 12 with 14 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-8), 15 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L D D W.
Kyoto Sanga: position 11 with 16 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-6), 19 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: W W D D L.
On average Nagoya Grampus take 1.08 points per game, Kyoto Sanga 1.00.
Absences and team news
Nagoya Grampus are without Y. Nogami, S. Tokumoto.
Kyoto Sanga are without R. Nakano, K. Nagata, Weverton.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 52% for Nagoya Grampus, 25% for the draw and 23% for Kyoto Sanga. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 25% and 23%.
Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.80, Kyoto Sanga 1.12, 2.92 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Nagoya Grampus win (52%, fair odds 1.92); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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