Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo prediction
J1 League · · IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Shimizu S-pulse a 36% chance of winning, the draw 31% and FC Tokyo 32%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Shimizu S-pulse 1.17, FC Tokyo 1.08.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Shimizu S-pulse: position 15 with 14 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-8), 10 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L L L D.
FC Tokyo: position 14 with 14 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-6), 12 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: W W W D L.
On average Shimizu S-pulse take 1.08 points per game, FC Tokyo 0.85.
Absences and team news
Shimizu S-pulse are without T. Umeda, R. Germain, Y. Shimamoto, Y. Honda.
FC Tokyo are without K. Suzuki, Y. Fukuda, K. Saito, R. Inoue.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 37% for Shimizu S-pulse, 31% for the draw and 32% for FC Tokyo. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 36%, 31% and 32%.
Expected goals: Shimizu S-pulse 1.17, FC Tokyo 1.08, 2.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Shimizu S-pulse win (36%, fair odds 2.74); double chance 1X rises to 68%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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