Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale prediction
J1 League · · Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa City
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Kashiwa Reysol a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kawasaki Frontale 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.91, Kawasaki Frontale 1.41.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Kashiwa Reysol: position 2 with 31 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-1-3), 31 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W W W D L.
Kawasaki Frontale: position 8 with 22 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-4-4), 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L L W W W.
On average Kashiwa Reysol take 2.15 points per game, Kawasaki Frontale 1.69.
Absences and team news
Kashiwa Reysol are without T. Kubo, R. Kojima, K. Kumasaka, Y. Segawa.
Kawasaki Frontale are without Y. Yamamoto, S. Miura, Derik Lacerda.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Kashiwa Reysol, 23% for the draw and 28% for Kawasaki Frontale. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 48%, 24% and 27%.
Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.91, Kawasaki Frontale 1.41, 3.32 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Kashiwa Reysol win (48%, fair odds 2.06); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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