FC Tokyo vs Kashima prediction
J1 League · · Ajinomoto Stadium, Chofu
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FC Tokyo a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kashima 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: FC Tokyo 1.53, Kashima 1.24.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FC Tokyo: position 14 with 14 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-6), 12 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: W W W D L.
Kashima: position 6 with 23 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-5), 29 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L W L D W.
On average FC Tokyo take 0.85 points per game, Kashima 1.77.
Absences and team news
FC Tokyo are without K. Sato, Marcelo Ryan, H. Ishihara, Kyota Tokiwa.
Kashima are without K. Misao, G. Shibasaki, Kim Tae-Hyeon.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for FC Tokyo, 27% for the draw and 29% for Kashima. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 27% and 30%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FC Tokyo 1.53, Kashima 1.24, 2.77 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a FC Tokyo win (43%, fair odds 2.34); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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