Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama prediction

J1 League · Sat, 7 Nov, 06:00 CET · Nissan Stadium, Yokohama

Full time

Updated: Sat, 7 Nov, 05:35 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Yokohama F. Marinos a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Fagiano Okayama 28%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.56, Fagiano Okayama 1.19.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Standings and form

Yokohama F. Marinos: position 7 with 22 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-7-2), 21 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: D W D D D.

Fagiano Okayama: position 10 with 17 points from 14 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-7), 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.

On average Yokohama F. Marinos take 1.62 points per game, Fagiano Okayama 1.23.

Absences and team news

Yokohama F. Marinos are without T. Inoue, J. Amano, K. Chinen.

Fagiano Okayama are without K. Shirai, Na Sang-Ho, H. Omori, Lucão.

Team news, Yokohama F. Marinos: Forward Jordy Croux has a left hamstring strain picked up in the 1 November match against Kawasaki Frontale.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 44% for Yokohama F. Marinos, 27% for the draw and 29% for Fagiano Okayama. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 45%, 27% and 28%.

Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.56, Fagiano Okayama 1.19, 2.74 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Yokohama F. Marinos win (45%, fair odds 2.24); double chance 1X rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

Missing

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