Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt prediction
Eliteserien · · Alfheim, Tromso
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Tromso a 12% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Bodo/Glimt 69%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Tromso 0.93, Bodo/Glimt 2.37.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Tromso: position 6 with 40 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-7-7), 43 goals scored and 38 conceded. Recent form: L L D D W.
Bodo/Glimt: position 2 with 59 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 19-2-4), 61 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: W L W W L.
On average Tromso take 1.60 points per game, Bodo/Glimt 2.36.
Absences and team news
Tromso are without A. Warneryd, H. Larsen, V. Skjærvik, L. Olden Larsen.
Bodo/Glimt are without S. Auklend, H. Aleesami.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 14% for Tromso, 19% for the draw and 67% for Bodo/Glimt. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 12%, 19% and 69%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Tromso 0.93, Bodo/Glimt 2.37, 3.30 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 8.9 (over 9.5 at 40%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Ola Hobber Nilsen (over 3.5 at 45%).
Kick-off forecast in Tromsø: 6.3 °C, rain 1.7 mm, wind 18 km/h, pitch artificial.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bodo/Glimt win (69%, fair odds 1.46); double chance X2 rises to 88%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram