Sandefjord vs Molde prediction
Eliteserien · · Sandefjord Arena, Sandefjord
Live · 86'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sandefjord a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Molde 47%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.64, Molde 2.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sandefjord: position 12 with 27 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-6-12), 26 goals scored and 34 conceded. Recent form: W L L D W.
Molde: position 4 with 43 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-4-8), 59 goals scored and 39 conceded. Recent form: L W W D L.
On average Sandefjord take 1.08 points per game, Molde 1.72.
Absences and team news
Sandefjord are without X. Lambrix, N. Möller, Z. Smajlović, Bendik Berntsen.
Molde are without E. Breivik, A. Posiadała, S. Hansen, E. Hestad.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for Sandefjord, 23% for the draw and 47% for Molde. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 31%, 23% and 47%.
Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.64, Molde 2.04, 3.68 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 71%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Mohammad Usman Aslam (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Sandefjord: 0.9 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Molde has a new coach, S. Tjelmeland, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Molde win (47%, fair odds 2.15); double chance X2 rises to 69%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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