Lillestrom vs Aalesund prediction
Eliteserien · · Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lillestrom a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aalesund 25%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Lillestrom 2.16, Aalesund 1.47.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lillestrom: position 5 with 42 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-3-9), 36 goals scored and 33 conceded. Recent form: W W W D L.
Aalesund: position 14 with 24 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-9-11), 43 goals scored and 57 conceded. Recent form: L L W L W.
On average Lillestrom take 1.68 points per game, Aalesund 0.96.
Absences and team news
Lillestrom are without Vá, Y. Ibrahimaj, L. Ranger, Y. Paintsil.
Aalesund are without Ó. Guðmundsson, K. Lonebu, Luca Podlech, K. Klaesson.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 53% for Lillestrom, 21% for the draw and 26% for Aalesund. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 22% and 25%.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 2.16, Aalesund 1.47, 3.63 in total. Over 2.5 at 70%, both teams to score at 69%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Stian Rovig Sletner (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Kjeller: -3.5 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lillestrom win (52%, fair odds 1.91); double chance 1X rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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