Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF prediction
Eliteserien · · Briskeby, Hamar
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Ham-Kam a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 41%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.44, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.64.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Ham-Kam: position 13 with 27 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-6-12), 35 goals scored and 53 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.
Sarpsborg 08 FF: position 9 with 31 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-7-10), 32 goals scored and 39 conceded. Recent form: L W L W L.
On average Ham-Kam take 1.08 points per game, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24.
Absences and team news
Ham-Kam are without E. Amundsen-Day, V. Jónsson, A. Ekeroth.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are without B. Utvik, A. Nibe, L. Øy, N. Williams.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 33% for Ham-Kam, 25% for the draw and 42% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 33%, 26% and 41%.
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.44, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.64, 3.08 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Tore Hansen (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Hamar: -2.9 °C, no rain, wind 6 km/h, pitch artificial.
Other factors
Sarpsborg 08 FF has a new coach, E. Sel, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sarpsborg 08 FF win (41%, fair odds 2.41); double chance X2 rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram