Fredrikstad vs Brann prediction
Eliteserien · · Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Fredrikstad a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Brann 41%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.53, Brann 1.71.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Fredrikstad: position 11 with 29 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-5-12), 29 goals scored and 44 conceded. Recent form: L L L D D.
Brann: position 7 with 32 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-2-13), 45 goals scored and 42 conceded. Recent form: W L L L W.
On average Fredrikstad take 1.16 points per game, Brann 1.28.
Absences and team news
Fredrikstad report no significant absences.
Brann report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 34% for Fredrikstad, 24% for the draw and 42% for Brann. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 34%, 25% and 41%.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.53, Brann 1.71, 3.25 in total. Over 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Jorgen Haugen (over 3.5 at 55%).
Kick-off forecast in Fredrikstad: 1.8 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch artificial.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Brann win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance X2 rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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