Pamplona vs Eibar prediction
Copa del Rey · · Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Pamplona a 6% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Eibar 77%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Pamplona 0.49, Eibar 2.27.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Pamplona report no significant absences.
Eibar report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Pamplona, 16% for the draw and 77% for Eibar. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 17% and 77%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Pamplona 0.49, Eibar 2.27, 2.76 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 35%; the most likely score is 0-2.
Expected corners: 7.6 (over 9.5 at 24%). Expected yellow cards: 4.1 (over 3.5 at 59%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Eibar win (77%, fair odds 1.29); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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