Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén prediction

Copa del Rey · Tue, 10 Nov, 20:00 CET

Updated: Sun, 8 Nov, 18:27 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Mijas Las Lagunas a 26% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Real Jaén 46%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Mijas Las Lagunas 1.11, Real Jaén 1.53.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Mijas Las Lagunas report no significant absences.

Real Jaén report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Mijas Las Lagunas, 28% for the draw and 46% for Real Jaén. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 28% and 46%.

Expected goals: Mijas Las Lagunas 1.11, Real Jaén 1.53, 2.64 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.

Expected corners: 7.7 (over 9.5 at 26%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (over 3.5 at 59%).

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Jaén win (46%, fair odds 2.18); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

Missing

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