Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés prediction

Copa del Rey · Tue, 10 Nov, 20:00 CET · Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano

Updated: Sun, 8 Nov, 18:27 CET

Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Amorebieta a 30% chance of winning, the draw 28% and UD Logroñés 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Amorebieta 1.19, UD Logroñés 1.46.

Match result

Goals

Most likely scores

Match analysis

Absences and team news

Amorebieta report no significant absences.

UD Logroñés report no significant absences.

What the odds and the model say

Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 31% for Amorebieta, 27% for the draw and 43% for UD Logroñés. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 30%, 28% and 42%.

Expected goals: Amorebieta 1.19, UD Logroñés 1.46, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.

Expected corners: 7.7 (over 9.5 at 26%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (over 3.5 at 59%).

In short

For the model the most likely outcome is a UD Logroñés win (42%, fair odds 2.38); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.

Missing

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