Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction
Copa del Rey · · Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Trival Valderas a 6% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Leganes 79%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Trival Valderas 0.57, Leganes 2.53.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Trival Valderas report no significant absences.
Leganes report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 8% for Trival Valderas, 13% for the draw and 79% for Leganes. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 15% and 79%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Trival Valderas 0.57, Leganes 2.53, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.6 (over 9.5 at 25%). Expected yellow cards: 4.5 (over 3.5 at 64%).
Kick-off forecast in Leganés: 15 °C, rain 4.3 mm, wind 18 km/h, pitch heavy.
Other factors
It is a local derby: a more heated match, often with more cards.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Leganes win (79%, fair odds 1.26); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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