Badajoz vs Tenerife prediction
Copa del Rey ·
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Badajoz a 20% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tenerife 53%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Badajoz 0.93, Tenerife 1.65.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Badajoz report no significant absences.
Tenerife report no significant absences.
Team news, Tenerife: Cervera has announced changes for the Copa del Rey, even though he wants to advance to the next round: Tenerife may rotate at Badajoz.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 20% for Badajoz, 26% for the draw and 54% for Tenerife. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 20%, 27% and 53%.
Expected goals: Badajoz 0.93, Tenerife 1.65, 2.59 in total. Over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 7.5 (over 9.5 at 24%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (over 3.5 at 60%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Tenerife win (53%, fair odds 1.88); double chance X2 rises to 80%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram