Anaitasuna vs Alaves prediction
Copa del Rey · · Campo Txerloia, Azcoitia
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Anaitasuna a 2% chance of winning, the draw 4% and Alaves 94%. The most likely result is 1-4. Expected goals: Anaitasuna 1.07, Alaves 5.35.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Anaitasuna report no significant absences.
Alaves report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 2% for Anaitasuna, 4% for the draw and 94% for Alaves. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 2%, 4% and 94%.
Expected goals: Anaitasuna 1.07, Alaves 5.35, 6.42 in total. Over 2.5 at 95%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-4. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.8 (over 9.5 at 27%). Expected yellow cards: 4.1 (over 3.5 at 57%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Alaves win (94%, fair odds 1.06); double chance X2 rises to 98%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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