Tavernes vs Valencia prediction
Copa del Rey · · Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Tavernes a 1% chance of winning, the draw 1% and Valencia 98%. The most likely result is 1-4. Expected goals: Tavernes 1.89, Valencia 9.10.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Tavernes report no significant absences.
Valencia report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 1% for Tavernes, 1% for the draw and 98% for Valencia. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 1%, 1% and 98%.
Expected goals: Tavernes 1.89, Valencia 9.10, 10.99 in total. Over 2.5 at 100%, both teams to score at 85%; the most likely score is 1-4. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 7.6 (over 9.5 at 25%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2 (over 3.5 at 60%).
Kick-off forecast in Valencia: 20.7 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Valencia win (98%, fair odds 1.02); double chance X2 rises to 99%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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