Austin vs Portland Timbers prediction
MLS · · Q2 Stadium, Austin
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Austin a 22% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Portland Timbers 57%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Austin 1.40, Portland Timbers 2.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Austin: position 14 with 34 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-10-16), 42 goals scored and 65 conceded. Recent form: L L L W L.
Portland Timbers: position 7 with 46 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-7-14), 62 goals scored and 61 conceded. Recent form: W W W W D.
On average Austin take 1.03 points per game, Portland Timbers 1.30.
Absences and team news
Austin report no significant absences.
Portland Timbers report no significant absences.
Team news, Austin: Austin is already out of the playoffs and is fielding mostly young players with next season in mind: a drop in intensity is possible.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 22% for Austin, 21% for the draw and 57% for Portland Timbers. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 22%, 21% and 57%.
Expected goals: Austin 1.40, Portland Timbers 2.32, 3.72 in total. Over 2.5 at 72%, both teams to score at 69%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.1 (over 9.5 at 54%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Victor Rivas (over 3.5 at 46%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Portland Timbers win (57%, fair odds 1.75); double chance X2 rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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