Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction
MLS · · Allianz Field, Sao Paulo
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Minnesota United FC a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Jose Earthquakes 19%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.30, San Jose Earthquakes 1.26.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Minnesota United FC: position 10 with 44 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 11-11-12), 56 goals scored and 58 conceded. Recent form: W W W D W.
San Jose Earthquakes: position 4 with 52 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-10-10), 57 goals scored and 51 conceded. Recent form: L W D L D.
On average Minnesota United FC take 1.24 points per game, San Jose Earthquakes 1.58.
Absences and team news
Minnesota United FC report no significant absences.
San Jose Earthquakes report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 60% for Minnesota United FC, 20% for the draw and 19% for San Jose Earthquakes. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 60%, 21% and 19%.
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 2.30, San Jose Earthquakes 1.26, 3.57 in total. Over 2.5 at 69%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.2 (over 9.5 at 55%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Alexis Da Silva (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Minnesota United FC win (60%, fair odds 1.67); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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