Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City prediction
MLS · · BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Houston Dynamo a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and St. Louis City 33%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.45, St. Louis City 1.33.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Houston Dynamo: position 5 with 51 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-9-11), 43 goals scored and 43 conceded. Recent form: L L W D D.
St. Louis City: position 3 with 54 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 15-9-10), 59 goals scored and 48 conceded. Recent form: W L L L L.
On average Houston Dynamo take 1.55 points per game, St. Louis City 1.55.
Absences and team news
Houston Dynamo report no significant absences.
St. Louis City report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 39% for Houston Dynamo, 27% for the draw and 34% for St. Louis City. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 39%, 28% and 33%.
Expected goals: Houston Dynamo 1.45, St. Louis City 1.33, 2.78 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Allen Chapman (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Houston Dynamo win (39%, fair odds 2.58); double chance 1X rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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