San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City prediction
MLS · · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives San Diego a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sporting Kansas City 19%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: San Diego 2.52, Sporting Kansas City 1.38.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
San Diego: position 13 with 38 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-11-14), 57 goals scored and 63 conceded. Recent form: L W L D D.
Sporting Kansas City: position 15 with 26 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-5-22), 40 goals scored and 81 conceded. Recent form: W D L L L.
On average San Diego take 1.15 points per game, Sporting Kansas City 0.70.
Absences and team news
San Diego report no significant absences.
Sporting Kansas City report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 61% for San Diego, 19% for the draw and 19% for Sporting Kansas City. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 61%, 20% and 19%.
Expected goals: San Diego 2.52, Sporting Kansas City 1.38, 3.90 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 70%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.2 (over 9.5 at 55%). Expected yellow cards: 4, with referee Ramy Touchan (over 3.5 at 55%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a San Diego win (61%, fair odds 1.63); double chance 1X rises to 81%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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