Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina · · Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Boca Juniors a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Defensa Y Justicia 11%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Boca Juniors 2.05, Defensa Y Justicia 0.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Boca Juniors: position 2 with 30 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-6-2), 22 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W W W W D.
Defensa Y Justicia: position 10 with 19 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-7-5), 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L D W L W.
On average Boca Juniors take 1.88 points per game, Defensa Y Justicia 1.19.
Absences and team news
Boca Juniors are without A. Costa, T. Aranda, L. Flores.
Defensa Y Justicia are without L. Souto, C. Fiermarín, D. Barbona, A. Molinas.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 66% for Boca Juniors, 21% for the draw and 13% for Defensa Y Justicia. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 67%, 21% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 2.05, Defensa Y Justicia 0.73, 2.78 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 2-0.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Sebastian Zunino (over 3.5 at 60%).
Kick-off forecast in Buenos Aires: 17.6 °C, no rain, wind 16 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Boca Juniors win (67%, fair odds 1.49); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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