Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina · · Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna, Buenos Aires
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Tigre a 49% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sarmiento Junin 22%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Tigre 1.44, Sarmiento Junin 0.88.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Tigre: position 10 with 20 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-8-4), 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W W L D L.
Sarmiento Junin: position 11 with 19 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-9), 13 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L L L D D.
On average Tigre take 1.25 points per game, Sarmiento Junin 1.19.
Absences and team news
Tigre are without I. Russo, J. Laso, V. Moreno, B. Leyes.
Sarmiento Junin are without C. Zabala, J. Insaurralde, S. Salle, R. Orihuela.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Tigre, 30% for the draw and 22% for Sarmiento Junin. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 49%, 29% and 22%.
Expected goals: Tigre 1.44, Sarmiento Junin 0.88, 2.32 in total. Over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Tigre win (49%, fair odds 2.05); double chance 1X rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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