Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction
Liga Profesional Argentina · · Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Gimnasia M. a 29% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Independ. Rivadavia 40%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Gimnasia M. 1.05, Independ. Rivadavia 1.26.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Gimnasia M.: position 11 with 19 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-4-7), 14 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: D D L L W.
Independ. Rivadavia: position 1 with 34 points from 16 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-4-2), 29 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: D W L D L.
On average Gimnasia M. take 1.19 points per game, Independ. Rivadavia 2.13.
Absences and team news
Gimnasia M. report no significant absences.
Independ. Rivadavia report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Gimnasia M., 33% for the draw and 38% for Independ. Rivadavia. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 29%, 31% and 40%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Gimnasia M. 1.05, Independ. Rivadavia 1.26, 2.30 in total. Over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 48%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Mendoza: 17.7 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Independ. Rivadavia win (40%, fair odds 2.51); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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