Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution prediction
MLS · · Exploria Stadium, Orlando
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Orlando City SC a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New England Revolution 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.15, New England Revolution 1.71.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Orlando City SC: position 8 with 46 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 13-7-14), 63 goals scored and 78 conceded. Recent form: W L D D W.
New England Revolution: position 3 with 58 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 18-4-12), 55 goals scored and 47 conceded. Recent form: L L W W W.
On average Orlando City SC take 1.30 points per game, New England Revolution 1.76.
Absences and team news
Orlando City SC report no significant absences.
New England Revolution report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Orlando City SC, 23% for the draw and 29% for New England Revolution. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 48%, 22% and 30%.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.15, New England Revolution 1.71, 3.87 in total. Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 73%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.6 (over 9.5 at 60%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Guido Gonzales Jr (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Orlando: 26.4 °C, no rain, wind 13 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Orlando City SC win (48%, fair odds 2.10); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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