DC United vs New York City FC prediction
MLS · · Audi Field, Washington
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives DC United a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and New York City FC 43%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: DC United 1.22, New York City FC 1.53.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
DC United: position 14 with 33 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-12-15), 39 goals scored and 61 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.
New York City FC: position 11 with 42 points from 34 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-12-12), 49 goals scored and 45 conceded. Recent form: W D W D D.
On average DC United take 1.00 points per game, New York City FC 1.18.
Absences and team news
DC United report no significant absences.
New York City FC report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for DC United, 28% for the draw and 43% for New York City FC. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 29%, 28% and 43%.
Expected goals: DC United 1.22, New York City FC 1.53, 2.75 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10.4 (over 9.5 at 57%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Matthew Thompson (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Washington: 14.3 °C, no rain, wind 23 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a New York City FC win (43%, fair odds 2.31); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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